Decred’s competitive advantages
Decred bills itself as an “autonomous digital currency with a hybrid consensus system”. It’s biggest competitive advantage is a consensus voting model designed to help developers avoid the community schisms we’ve seen with bitcoin and ethereum. There are several coins and tokens that are attempting to do similar things (EOS and Tezos among them), but DCR is very close behind them in value.
The Oracle’s Decred price prediction/target
In Goldman Sachs’ 2018 Investment Outlook, the firm argues the bitcoin and cryptocurrency “mania” already dwarfs the famous Dutch “tulipmania” in the 1600s and the March 2000 dot-com bubble.
At the very end of the piece, they include this gem:
At the peak of the dot-com bubble in March 2000, the combined market capitalization of Nasdaq and S&P 500 information technology stocks was 101% of U.S. GDP and 31% of world GDP. The aggregate market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is 3.2% of U.S. GDP and 0.8% of world GDP.
If there’s one thing I’ve learned in more than a decade of investing in various assets, it’s this: markets go higher and fall lower than we generally imagine they will. While I don’t see cryptocurrencies ever hitting 101% of the U.S.’s GDP, I still envision at least one more extraordinary rise in prices for cryptocurrency.
Why? Because the public still thinks of crypto as a currency and a currency alone. The average investor hasn’t heard of ethereum yet (not to mention interesting projects like Golem, Gridcoin, Waves and more than 1,000 others). 2017 was the year of bitcoin. 2018 will be the year of blockchain.
My personal target is a $2 trillion market cap for all cryptocurrencies. If we hit that number, we’d be at just 10% of the $20 trillion U.S. GDP. Under that scenario (assuming current coin ratios stay the same), the price of Decred (DCR) would be around $292.62. That’s assuming the overall crypto market hits 10 times its current market cap of approx. $200 billion ($200 billion * 10 = $2 trillion). If we hit 50% of the U.S. GDP, we’d be at $1,481.60 per DCR. At 101% of U.S. GDP, we’d be looking at a future DCR price of $2,963.20. During its peak over the winter, each DCR hit $121. If we hit DCR’s highest possible price target, we’d be looking at a 100x gain from today’s levels.
I don’t disagree with Goldman. What we saw over the winter was an extraordinary bubble. I just disagree that we’ve already seen the top.
Side note: The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio for Q4 2017 stood at 104 percent. Perhaps the true bubble we’re witnessing is government debt.
Disclaimer: This post is does not account for currency inflation. Price predictions were calculated as if the total coin supply were capped at the time of publication.